Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Prachanda’s dilemma

Prachanda’s dilemma


Kathmandu: Many would prefer to believe that Maoist leader Prachanda, the ferocious of the bygone era, has already become a sinking horse.

Others believe that Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s bad days are in store as he is yet to receive shocks after shocks from the Indian regime for his “mis-adventure” that he exhibited towards the South by bringing the friend from the North closer much to the chagrin of the self proclaimed traditional friend.

Yet another section concludes that Prachanda’s days in his own party remain numbered as he neither is in government nor the party’s structure remains in his grip.

Different brains may possess differing views which is only but natural.

But Prachanda is not yet a lost case. That he was in possession of several cards still under his sleeve, which he himself was not aware of, had he not spent some good three days in Godavari Resort Hotel.

While in leisure at Godavari last week, Prachanda got some clues on how to tame the current politics in his favor.

Prachanda knows well that if his party were to survive then he must invent some schemes that unendingly weakened the current shaky coalition led by shaky Prime Minister Mr. defeated Nepal.

Fortunately, prior to the government taking a formal shape, the constituents comprising of the coalition have already begun playing a dirty game that is sure to invite the tenure of this government more closer and this is what the Maoists want from their inner heart.

Thus, in all likelihood, Mr. defeated Nepal’s government will not last longer. The government may collapse of its own weight and the needed extra weight will be put on place by the Maoists.

No wonder then Comrade Prachanda has been talking to his close confidantes that “I will be back in Singh Durbar after the end of the Nepali festivals”.

Nepalese festivals begin October and end around November.

Prachanda concludes that UML leader Jhal Nath Khanal for a variety of political reasons is closer to his party and possesses some soft corner for the Maoists.

Khanal is on record to have recently said that “We need a national government which must see the participation of the Maoists”.

This does mean that Khanal wants to bring in the Maoists in the nation’s governing structure. May be Khanal is allowing this space for the Maoists to expand their base both in government and out side it.

More over, Khanal’s preference of the Maoists no longer remains a secret.

High placed sources claim that both Prachanda and Khanal favor the formation of a broader Communist Front and rule the nation for all time to come.

Khanal’s excessive leaning towards the Maoists has become a matter of serious concern for those who claim themselves to be liberals or democrats.

Apart from Khanal, the Maoists have already an influential UML leader Bam Dev Gautam in their pocket. Mr. Gautam, insiders of the UML have told this paper, is two third Maoists if not all from tip to toe.

Mr. Gautam’s leaning towards the Maoists dates back to his first meeting with Prachanda in Rolpa Jungles as back as in early February 2005.

It was this Rolpa meet that saw the emergence of the six point agreement in between the UML and the Maoists which was later hijacked by New Delhi and expanded to 12 point agreement inserting some important clauses for its political gains.

It was this Rolpa agreement which provided a base for the Maoist’s grand entrance into the mainstream politics of Nepal. Albeit, New Delhi took the entire credit and some how or the other managed the dismantling of the 240 year long Nepal’s Royal Institution through the grand use of the then agitating seven political parties and the Maoists who were residing in New Delhi.

The New Delhi agreement, at best, had talked of the abolition of the autocratic monarchy but not of dismantling the entire institution of the Nepali monarchy. But things then prevailed as New Delhi wished and the seven parties together with the Maoists acted as per the wishes of their New Delhi mentors.

This was perhaps beginning of the beginning of the end of the nation-state. Further deterioration is still awaited.

So this does mean that Mr. Khanal and Mr. Gautam are the two sure-shot undeclared supporters of the Maoists.

The story doesn’t end here. Some thing is more in the store which speaks of the Maoists excellent maneuvering capabilities.

The Maoists have slowly penetrated into the self-styled Democratic Party-the Nepali Congress. The Maoists penetration into the NC’s politics has been clearly facilitated by Ms. Sujata Koirala-Jost.

Recall the days when the Nepal Army issue was at its nadir, it was none less than Sujata who championed the idea that Katwal be relieved and Khadka be allowed to replace Katwal.

Sujata spoke and went against the party’s line. Sujata took the Maoist line because her “daddy” was negotiating for a DPM post for his German national daughter Sujata in the Maoist led cabinet. However, unfortunately, things went upside down with the purely “unconstitutional” intervention of the NC elevated Nepal President Dr. Yadav.

A ceremonial president flexed his muscle.

But this doesn’t and shouldn’t mean that Sujata is at a comfortable distance with the Maoists.

Question thus comes to the minds of the analysts as to how Sujata-almost a duffer and a new comer in politics, dare to advocate the Maoists stance?

Is she that much competent enough? Or some countries near or far pressing her hard to speak their brains? Or she is just speaking the voice of the Indian establishment which through Sujata wants to be closer to the Maoists? In politics such hidden games are played albeit through the best use of some stooges.

This diplomatic game is very very dangerous. But what is for sure that Sujata is just a pawn being used by some, let’s presume some influential countries that have still profound love and respect for the Maoists, or else she has neither the competence nor that knowledge to champion the cause of the Maoists. Her new found love for the Maoists is no less intriguing indeed.

But whose pawn is Sujata then? Keep on guessing.

Analysts here have some knowledge of the country/countries which may have encouraged Sujata to speak on their behalf, however, it will be premature to reveal the names of the countries. Nevertheless, time permitting, the analysts will reveal the possible names of the countries seducing Sujata for their own advantages.

Sujata only the other day advocated in favor of the Maoists and said that “without the Maoists in government, the new constitution can’t be drafted”.

Perhaps this speaks so many things unspoken.

Thus not only Khanal, Gautam but Ms. Sujata Koirala-Jost-a German national by all means, are with the Maoists.

The pretty humiliated Upendra Yadav, the erstwhile founder president of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, by default, has freshly associated himself with the Maoists.

He has to take befitting revenge from those who managed his unceremonious ouster from the party and this he could do only when he enjoys needed and the required support from the Maoists whose presence in the country’s politics can’t be dismissed.

Upendra Yadav is basically a MJF leader with Maoist soul. Upendra’s association with the Maoists is sure to benefit both the parties. It is thus likely that through Upendra Yadav, the Maoists will regain their practically lost base in Terai or say Madhesh.

No free lunch in politics, Upendra knows this fact which has already assumed the force of a rule.

This does then mean that Maoists have penetrated deep into the UML, they have their moles in the Nepali Congress and very freshly the disgruntled Madhesi leaders also in some way or the other are close to the Maoists.

Is this not enough to manage a collapse of this government? Perhaps yes!

If Madhav can buy the loyalty of 22 political duffers and buffoons then Prachanda is also in a position to bring in the same name-sake political thugs to his fold and exhibit his numerical strength. Albeit he will have to arrange some “money” which he can manage easily if he so desired.

Prachanda can get so many “for sale” political leaders.

After all, the twenty-two heads need few thousands more than what they have been paid by Mr. Defeated Nepal.

But Prachanda appears not in a hurry to play this dirty game as the grumbling in between the main constituents and the rest of the parties have already begun which if not handled with care may catapult the entire politics.

If this does happen, the likelihood of which remains intact, then it is the Maoists to harvest the political benefits albeit by default.

Prachanda is not in a hurry also because he knows that this NC-UML coalition will not last long and thus he doesn’t want to spend extra time and energy for bringing about a collapse of this Indiaelevated government.

Moreover, Prachanda enjoys intimate relations with Madhav Nepal. Mr. Nepal upon assuming the post of the Prime Minister tried his best to please the Maoists by stating that the bete noir of Katwal, Mr. Kul Bahadur Khadka may be told to act as the security advisor to the Prime Minister.

This was enough to please the Maoists.

Reports say that Madhav Nepal is not in a mood to make null and void all of the decisions made by the Maoists government in the recent past. He is on record to have said that the “good and mature” decisions made by the Maoists will remain untouched.

Thus, for sake of convenience, let’s presume that the government led by Mr. defeated Nepal will not experience any sort of threat to its life from the Maoist quarters, at least for the time being.

However, if Mr. Nepal dares to sign the Extradition treaty on the lines of the Indian preference then it will be the Maoists who will create pandemonium in the country.

Having said all these, Prachanda may have to face some troubles from within his own party.

Hard liners in his party, like Mohan Vaidya Kiran and Netra Bikram Chand, have been encouraging him to capture the state through the use of the streets and violence.

Prachanda though wants to bounce back to power through democratic means, however, his colleagues, for example, Dr. Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal, Lila Mani Pokhrel, and Giriraj Mani Pokhrel have been encouraging Prachanda to go in for a fierce movement and turn the movement into a revolt and later capture the State once and for all.

However, Dr. Bhattarai’s line of thinking for a revolt and that too on the lines suggested by Mohan Vaidya appears mysterious because Bhattarai’s line of thinking is different.

Some even claim that the hardliners want to depose Prachanda in the process. Others say that Dr. Bhattarai has been told by his foreign colleagues that till Prachanda remained the party’s boss, Dr. Bhattarai’s chances of becoming the Prime Minister of this country will be a distant dream and thus they have been advising Dr. Bhattarai to prompt Prachanda to go in for a revolt, which in their opinion, will definitely fail.

It would be this failure of Prachanda a logical ruse to depose him from the post of the party’s chairman.

Such phenomenon is common in Communist parties, by the way.

The ongoing Polit Bureau meeting will test the political acumen of Prachanda who will be pressed hard by the hardliners to initiate People’s Revolution.

Those who want the people’s Revolution to commence at the earliest are in the majority in the party.

Thus Prachanda has his enemies’ right inside his own party.

That’s all.

2009-06-18 06:17:14
2009-06-18 06:17:14

1 comment:

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